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January 2025

Analysis of Grain and Oilseed Exports from Ukraine and Moldova Amidst Ongoing Conflict

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to disrupt agricultural production and exports, significantly impacting the grain and oilseed markets. In 2023, Ukraine produced an estimated 60.1 million tonnes of grains, including wheat, corn, and barley, but exports for 2024-25 are expected to decrease due to lower production and reduced planted areas. Soybean exports have seen a modest increase, with a projected rise of 7% from the previous year.

Moldova, which shares strong trade relations with Ukraine, has faced its own set of challenges, including limiting Ukrainian grain imports to protect local farmers. Moldova also plays an important role in the regional grain trade, and its export dynamics reflect the broader volatility in the region.

Logistical disruptions continue to be a significant hurdle. Traditional transport routes, including key Ukrainian ports like Odessa, have been heavily impacted by the war. This has led to increased reliance on alternative routes, including the Danube River and overland corridors, but these options come with additional costs and logistical difficulties. Security risks, particularly for maritime transport, have heightened the challenges.

To manage these issues, Ukraine has introduced export quotas and minimum export prices for grains and oilseeds in 2025, aiming to stabilize prices and avoid triggering European Union safeguard measures. These regulatory changes, alongside the ongoing military conflict, create significant uncertainty in the market, affecting both producers and global importers.

Looking ahead to 2025, Ukraine's agricultural sector is projected to suffer long-term losses, with estimates of up to $83 billion in indirect losses by the end of the year. While the Ukrainian economy is expected to grow by 2.7%, the agricultural sector’s recovery remains uncertain. The global grain market will likely face volatility, and stakeholders must adapt to these shifting conditions as they navigate the continued disruptions caused by the conflict.

July 2024

Ukrainian Grain Export Update
July 2024

July 2024 has seen a notable upswing in Ukrainian grain exports, demonstrating resilience and strategic adaptability in the sector. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and infrastructural challenges, Ukraine's grain exports have shown significant improvement, with a marked increase in ship arrivals near pre-war levels and robust activity through newly established Black Sea corridors​.

Ukraine's grain exports for the month reached 2.16 million metric tons, a significant rise from the previous year's figures. This volume included key staples such as corn, wheat, and barley, highlighting the country's continued role as a major player in the global grain market​. The introduction of a new grain-export corridor has been pivotal, allowing for increased export capacity and contributing to a more stable global food supply chain.

Despite the optimistic performance in July, projections for the 2024-25 marketing year suggest a potential downturn in grain exports, attributed to lower supply and reduced production estimates. The Ukrainian Grain Association forecasts total grain exports to reach around 35.5 million metric tons, which reflects the ongoing challenges and the need for continued strategic planning and investment in the agricultural sector​.

While the current trends are promising, the grain brokerage community remains vigilant. The geopolitical landscape and environmental factors continue to pose risks that could impact future output and export capabilities. Strategic investments and international cooperation will be crucial in sustaining Ukraine's agricultural exports and supporting global food security.

In conclusion, July 2024 has highlighted both the challenges and the significant strides made in Ukraine's grain export sector. The country's ability to navigate complex market dynamics and geopolitical challenges continues to play a critical role in the global grain supply chain.

June 2024

Briefing on Grain Exports from Ukraine (2024)

Ukraine has seen a slight increase in grain exports during the 2023/24 marketing year. As of early June 2024, grain exports totaled approximately 47 million tons, marking a 2.9% increase compared to the previous year​ (Українські Новини)​. The main types of grain exported include wheat, barley, corn, and rye. Despite geopolitical tensions and challenges, Ukraine has managed to maintain robust export volumes, largely attributed to the resumption of operations at major marine ports like Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdennyi​.

Challenges: The grain export sector faces significant logistical and geopolitical challenges, particularly regarding the Black Sea export routes. The recent blockade and restrictions in the Black Sea have prompted Ukraine to explore alternative export routes, including the Danube River and overland routes through neighboring countries​​. Additionally, the USDA has noted that Ukrainian grain exports could face potential disruptions due to issues in the Red Sea, affecting the Black Sea export program​.

Forward Outlook for 2024: Looking forward, Ukraine's grain export potential in MY 2024-25 is expected to decrease due to lower production forecasts and reduced planting areas, as farmers shift their focus towards more profitable oilseeds. The total grain exports are projected to be around 35.5 million metric tons, a decrease from previous forecasts​.

Strategic Developments: Ukraine is focusing on improving its logistical capabilities and securing alternative export routes to mitigate the impact of Black Sea blockades. The development of new grain-export corridors and the increased use of Danube River ports are pivotal in maintaining export volumes.

Despite the geopolitical challenges and logistical constraints, Ukraine continues to be a significant player in the global grain market. The country's ability to adapt to changing circumstances and explore alternative export strategies is crucial for maintaining its position in the global supply chain. 

June 2024

Briefing on Grain Exports from Moldova and Romania (2024)

Moldova has experienced a significant increase in grain exports, particularly notable in the first eight months of 2022 where grain exports constituted 13% of total goods deliveries from the country. The surge in exports can be attributed to the re-exportation of Ukrainian grains, which are transported to Romanian ports and then distributed to other markets. This increase underscores Moldova's strategic role as a transit hub in the region​.

EU Support and Trade Dynamics: The European Union has continued its support for Moldova by renewing the suspension of all import duties on Moldovan products for another year. This measure is part of the EU's broader commitment to assist Moldova in redirecting its exports primarily towards EU markets, especially in light of the disruptions caused by regional conflicts. In 2022, Moldova's exports to the EU showed a significant increase, indicating a positive response to these measures.

Romania's Role as a Transit Country: Romania's strategic location as a Black Sea nation makes it a critical transit route for grain exports from both Ukraine and Moldova. Romania's ports play a vital role in facilitating the international distribution of grains, which is crucial for the agricultural sectors of its neighboring countries.

Looking ahead, Moldova's ability to maintain and expand its grain export capacity will largely depend on regional stability and its continued integration with EU markets. The support from the EU in terms of trade facilitation and economic aid will be crucial in this respect. Additionally, Romania's infrastructure and cooperative regional policies will be vital in ensuring the Black Sea remains a reliable conduit for grain exports amidst geopolitical challenges.

June 2024

Global Grain Market Demand and Eastern European Contribution: 2024 Overview

Global Demand Overview: The global demand for grains is expected to continue rising, driven by increasing population and the growing need for food and biofuel. The world population, projected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, necessitates an increase in staple crops like wheat, rice, soybeans, and corn. This escalation in demand aligns with a predicted 70% rise in global food demand by 2050, underpinning the critical role of intensified agricultural production​.

Eastern European Contribution: Eastern European countries, notably those in the Black Sea region, play a pivotal role in meeting global grain demand. This region, including countries like Ukraine, is crucial for wheat production and export. The Black Sea suppliers are anticipated to fulfill a significant portion of global wheat demand at the beginning of the 2024/25 season, highlighting their strategic importance in the grain supply chain.

Market Projections: For the 2024/25 season, the global grain market is expected to witness a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics. While overall cereal production is projected to remain stable, specific decreases in global maize and wheat outputs due to adverse weather in the Black Sea region are anticipated. Nonetheless, the increased utilization and slightly growing stock levels of grains like barley, rice, and sorghum suggest a resilient global supply chain capable of adapting to these challenges.

The Eastern European region, despite facing its own set of challenges, remains a critical player in the global grain market. The region's ability to adapt to and overcome logistical and geopolitical hurdles will be key to maintaining its role as a major grain supplier amid rising global demand and market volatilities. The strategic importance of these countries in stabilizing global grain supply underscores the interconnected nature of global agricultural markets and the necessity for robust international cooperation and trade strategies.

August 2023

Ukraine asks the European Commission to compensate farmers for the cost of logistics.

Ukraine Ministry of Agrarian Policy has appealed to the European Commission for help with compensation for Ukrainian farmers. Transport and Logistics costs are increasing now that grain distribution has refocused to use Danube and EU ports due to the inaccessibility of key ports such as Odesa – which are suffering from increased attacks from Russia and threats of sea blockages. 

The blockade of the Black Sea ports, the cost of transporting Ukrainian grain to distant EU ports is very expensive for the farmer. And further delivery of agricultural products from these ports to the countries of Africa, Asia and the Middle East is unprofitable for Ukrainian farmers. 

A positive decision from the European Commission will improve the possibilities of uninterrupted export of Ukrainian agricultural products.  The provision of such subsidies, which will be paid only when products are delivered to distant European ports, will improve exports, including positively affect transit through Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria,” said Taras Vysotskyi, Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine.

Temporary Corridor

August 16th - the first of several ships stuck in Black Sea ports, after Russia terminated the safe passage corridor deal, has been allowed to depart Odesa via a temporary safe corridor.

A temporary corridor has been established to evacuate ships that were in the Ukrainian ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdennyi at the time of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation.

The last vessel that carried grain under the Grain Deal, left the port of Odesa on July 16. "After the disruption of the Grain Deal, the Russian Federation resorted to systematic air attacks on port infrastructure to stop Ukrainian agricultural export. At the same time, there are information speculations and attempts of provocations in the Black Sea to influence the movement of ships to Ukrainian ports," said the Ukrainian Minister for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development, Oleksandr Kubrakov.

July 2023

Grain Prices Increase as Russia threatens Ukraine ports

The Black Sea Grain Initiative was brokered a year ago by Turkey and the United Nations. It allowed for the export of Ukrainian grain from its Black Sea Ports by guaranteeing safe passage for ships carrying Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea to Turkey’s Bosphorus Strait. This deal expired on Monday 17th July. 

Wheat prices have risen sharply after Russia pulled out of this guarantee initiative. Russia has said that it will treat ships heading for Ukrainian ports as potential military targets.

Wheat prices on the European stock exchange soared by 8.2% on 19th July following the attacks and announcement. 

This follows increased attacks on Ukraine port cities, including Odesa and Mykolaiv. Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of deliberately targeting grain export infrastructure and putting vulnerable countries at risk.

January 2023

Grains still leaving Ukraine ports

Grains leaving Ukraine ports demonstrate the signficance of Ukrainian grain exports for global food security. The Black Sea Grain Inititative has enabled supplies to continue but demand remains high under difficult circumstances.

Since August 2022, 653 ships have left the ports of Greater Odesa, exporting over 17.5 million tonnes of Ukrainian foods to countries in Asia, Europe and Africa. 

Over 40% of the cargo was maize, the grain most affected by blockages in Ukrainian granaries at the beginning of the war (75% of the 20 million tonnes of grain stored). It had to be moved quickly to make space for wheat from the summer harvest.

66% of wheat exported through the Black Sea Grain Initiative reached developing countries. Maize, on the other hand, is exported mainly to developed countries, where it’s used primarily for food production (i.e. livestock feeding).

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP – the largest humanitarian organisation in the world) has restarted shipping wheat from Black Sea ports. Before the war, the WFP bought half of its grain stock from Ukraine. So far, five ships carrying a total of over 150,000 tonnes of wheat have left Ukrainian ports en route to Ethiopia, Yemen, Djibouti, Somalia and Afghanistan.

In the Bosphorus there are queues of ships awaiting inspect prior to approval for safe transit under the Black Sea Grain Initiative. It has been reported that on 15th January 2023, 109 ships were waiting inline, indicating the importance and demand for safe passage to Ukraine ports. Earlier on 13th January, 11 ships with 313,500 ​tonnes of agricultural products left the commercial sea ports of Great Odesa along the "grain corridor."

On 17th November 2022, Ukraine Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov announced that the Initiative for the safe transportation of agricultural products through the Black Sea was extended for another 120 days. This will help to enable supplies of agricultural supplies through to March 2023.

January 2023

Ukraine Corn Exports

The first quarter of the year is normally the busiest period for the export of corn from Ukraine. Demand is high and there is extra incentive to export stores of grain harvested in the autumn. 

Although Ukraine has exported almost 23.6 million tonnes of grain so far in the 2022/23 season, it is down from the 33.5 million tonnes exported by the same stage of the previous season. The volume included around 8.6 million tonnes of wheat, 13.3 million tonnes of corn and about 1.7 million tonnes of barley.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative guaranteed the safety of commercial ships visiting the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi. But, every ship has to be inspected by a team composed of representatives from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the UN. This is causing delays.

There are alternative export routes. The closure of Ukraine's deepsea ports between March and July following Russia's invasion forced exporters to defer shipments or find alternative routes, most of which were via Romania by rail or barge. Those trains and smaller boats weren't able to handle much more than 2.5 million tonnes a month.

In the first three months of the grain corridor's operation, between August and October 2022, the deepsea ports shipped 4.4 million mt of corn. That was more than the 3.8 million mt over the same period a year earlier but wasn't sufficient to clear the corn remaining from the 2021 crop.

In the short term market participants agree that Ukraine's corn exports will be limited by the frequency of ships visiting its ports rather than its farmers' ability to produce the grain.

China, Spain, the Netherlands, Turkey and Egypt were the five largest importers for Ukrainian corn between 2020 and 2022, with China taking slightly less than a third of the total. Spain and Italy have become the most conspicuous buyers. The European Union's need for imported corn has been especially acute this year due to the drought that many countries, including France, experienced in the key pollination period over the summer. Much of the corn exported from Romania will continue to be of Ukrainian origin.

October 2022

Black Sea Grain Initiative

Ukraine is one of the world’s largest grain exporters, normally supplying approximately 45 million tonn​es of grain to the global market every year.

Recipients of foodstuffs from Ukraine include Spain (1.8m tonnes), Turkey (1.3m tonnes), China (0.9m tonnes), Italy (0.8m tonnes) and Egypt (0.4m tonnes).

Following the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it was unsafe to ship grain from Ukrainian ports and land routes. Grain stores filled and global prices escalated. The interuptions in supply and huge price increases contributed to a global food shortage impacting developing and emerging economies. 

In July 2022, the UN brokered The Initiative on the Safe Transportation of Grain and Foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports, also called the Black Sea Grain Initiative . 

The agreement is designed to provide the safe navigation for the export of grain and related foodstuffs including furtiliser from the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhne. Ukraine expected to export 60 million tonnes over 9 months should their ports continue to operate. This was in addition to land corridors that had established safe "solidarity corridors" through neighbouring European borders.

Whilst the war in Ukraine continues, the situation remains fluid and rapidly changing. Black Sea Brokers continue to monitor the operational capacity of the ports, the related grain storage facilities and the infrastructure that supplies them.

In 2022/23 Ukraine is expected to produce 50-52 million MT of grains and 15-17 million MT of oilseeds, a figure that is significantly higher than domestic consumption.